Projected Rainfall in the 11 tehsils of Solapur district (Maharashtra) for 2030, 2050, and 2070 under the RCP 4.5 scenario

Abstract This study investigates the annual rainfall trends in the 11 tehsils of Solapur district from 1982 to 2023 and projects future rainfall changes under the RCP 4.5 climate scenario for the years 2030, 2050, and 2070. The analysis highlights varying rainfall patterns across different tehsils, with significant regional differences in trends and projected changes. Akkalkot and Barshi exhibit notable increases in rainfall, with projected deviations of over 25% by 2070. In contrast, Malshiras is projected to experience a substantial decline in rainfall, with a decrease of 45.5% by 2030. Other tehsils, such as Karmala, Madha, and Pandharpur, show moderate increases in rainfall, ranging from 6% to 20% by 2070. Some tehsils, including Mangalwedha, Mohol, and North Solapur, show minimal variations in rainfall, with deviations remaining below 20%. The findings emphasize the need for region-specific adaptation strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change on water resources and agriculture in the Solapur district. These results align with similar studies by Todmal (2021), Kumar and Dimri (2017), and Sharmila et al. (2015), highlighting the diverse climatic changes occurring across different regions.