Geomorphic Distribution Modeling of Desert Pavements: Towards a Global Assessment

Desert pavements, characterized by a stone layer over fine eolian materials, are key geomorphological features in arid regions and play a critical role in the global dust cycle. Despite their importance, quantitative evidence regarding their global distribution remains limited. This study provides a preliminary assessment of desert pavement distribution using a GIS-based multiple-criteria decision analysis (GIS–MCDA) framework. Key environmental factors, including climate, topography, vegetation, soil texture, and anthropogenic disturbance, were incorporated into a global favorability index at a 1 km × 1 km resolution. Validation against 20 documented desert-pavement research sites revealed a significant association with high index values, with 15% of sites exhibiting an index ≥0.90 and 80% ≥0.75. The model estimates that up to 25.7 million km², or 19.0% of the Earth’s land surface, holds potential for desert pavements. These results provide a foundation for future studies, emphasizing the need for localized, high-resolution research and the integration of geomorphometric and remote-sensing techniques with machine-learning models. This initial global assessment underscores the utility of GIS–MCDA in geomorphic distribution modeling and highlights the importance of refining global environmental datasets for arid landscapes.