Revisiting Scenario Planning: A Methodological Framework for Addressing the Limitations of the 2x2 Matrix Method

This research aims to contribute to the advancement of foresight methods by examining the limitations of the conventional 2x2 matrix method in scenario planning. The method often reduces complex dynamics into four simplified quadrants and risks oversimplification and misrepresentation of real-world complexities. Through a rigorous qualitative analysis of scenario-based case studies, this study addresses these shortcomings theoretically and practically. It proposes a mixed methodological framework to better capture the intricate interplay of factors in scenario development. By integrating and evaluating complementary foresight tools, this research constructs a more reliable approach to scenario planning. The proposed framework leverages the strengths of existing methods, mitigates their weaknesses, co-creates scenarios through participatory workshops, iteratively refines scenarios via ongoing research, tests hypotheses to ensure robustness, and continuously monitors external factors to maintain relevance. This study contributes to futures studies by offering a methodological alternative that accommodates complex factor interactions, enhances stakeholder engagement, and strengthens decision-making in uncertain contexts.