Emission Cap Scenarios for Indian Power Sector using MESSAGEix Modelling Framework

This study employs the MESSAGEix integrated assessment model to analyze the effects of emission cap implementation on India's thermal power sector. Given the significant contribution of thermal power generation to India's greenhouse gas emissions, policy interventions such as the proposed Indian Carbon Market (ICM) warrant rigorous analysis. The study examines the period from 2020 to 2050, assessing the impacts of varying emission caps on key metrics: installed generation capacity, electricity generation by source, projected emission trajectories, and associated system costs. Two scenarios are compared: a business-as-usual (BAU) projection and a moderate emission reduction scenario. The BAU scenario anticipates continued reliance on subcritical coal-fired power plants, coupled with rising coal-based generation and limited renewable energy growth. Conversely, the moderate emission cap scenario projects a substantial reduction in thermal power generation and capacity, particularly for coal-fired plants. This reduction is compensated by significant expansion of renewable energy capacity, notably in hydro, solar, and wind power, and necessitates the accelerated decommissioning of existing coal-fired capacity. The model optimizes the total discounted system cost, subject to techno-economic and societal constraints, including the imposed emission limitations. The results elucidate the inherent trade-offs between achieving emission reductions, facilitating technological transitions within the power sector, and minimizing overall system costs.