D10.8: Storyline of Renewable Energy pilot study

About this document Report presenting the renewable energy pilot study as a coherent storyline which provides a unity to physical and social components. Work package in charge: WP10 Executive summary This deliverable presents a novel approach to integrating high-resolution Earth-system model outputs with participatory scenario development to support the renewable energy transition in Europe. Conducted within the simulations generated by nextGEMS, the study explores how storm-resolving Earth system models (SR-ESMs) can inform national energy planning whencombined with stakeholder-driven storylines. To test the methodology, we conducted a proof-of-concept case study focusing on Spain’s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), a strategic document outlining the country’s decarbonization pathway, which is part of a legal framework present in all EU Member States. While such plans are key instruments for climate mitigation, they often don’t consider the impacts of climate change on renewable energy sources and the socio-political factors that influence public acceptance and their overall implementation. To address these limitations, the project conducted a series of workshops involving energy stakeholders from government, academia, industry, and civil society. Through a co-production process, three storylines were developed—Actual, Integrative, and Distributive—each reflecting different visions of the future energy transition. These qualitative narratives were then used to guide and constrain SR-ESM outputs, which included projections of wind and solar resource availability across Spain and applying different masks. By combining scenario-based, discourse-analytical, and physical climate storyline methodologies, the study provides proof of concept for how SR-ESMs can support policy decisions even before full model readiness is achieved. Results show that stakeholders value spatially detailed model outputs but require the role of boundary actors to interpret them and eventually integrate them into decision-making. The storyline method also facilitated inclusive dialogue on contested aspects of the energy transition, such as centralization vs. decentralization and trade-offs between efficiency and equity. Overall, the policy implications are that km-scale Earth System Models can be a great ally to countries as tools for the energy transition and supporting regional differentiation in energy planning. National energy plans should integrate climate variability and extremes in order to create resilient energy systems. We have evidenced, also, how participatory methods can improve social acceptance and the relevance of modeling outputs. Finally, and to conclude, co-produced storylines offer a mechanism to align science, policy, and public concerns. Future research should focus on operationalising such approaches and validating their added value. To conclude, this work contributes to bridging the knowledge-action gap in climate science by emphasizing co-production, interdisciplinarity, and actionable modeling. It suggests that early engagement of societal actors and integration of novel climate information can enhance the usability and robustness of energy transition strategies, as well as make km-scale modellingefforts more fit-for-purpose.