The Impact of Moral Hazard Uncertainty and Macro Indicators on the Long-Term Volatility Transmission Pattern of the Investment Sector

In economics, corruption is defined as exploiting public power to achieve personal goals. The importance of international trade, on the one hand, and the ethical complexities in it, on the other hand, doubles the necessity of carefully examining the relationship between these two categories. In this research, an attempt has been made to examine the relationship between foreign direct investment and moral risks and uncertainty at the macro level in Iran. Be studied and proven. The current research method is applied, and data collection and analysis are correlational. The statistical population used in this research is foreign direct investment, moral hazard, inflation rate, and exchange rate of Iran. The moral hazard index data have been collected and used through the International Transparency Organization, and the macro index data have been collected and used through the global development indicators. The research sample of these statistics was collected from 2004 to 2023. The results showed that, in this research, the combined Garch-Midas model was used to investigate the effect of macroeconomic uncertainty indicators on the volatility of foreign direct investment returns, and all three uncertainty indicators of exchange rate, inflation rate, and moral hazard have a significant effect on the volatility of foreign direct investment returns. Moreover, moral hazard uncertainty is a leading indicator that affects foreign direct investment in Iran. According to the estimation, macroeconomic uncertainties, especially moral hazard uncertainties, play a significant role in increasing the volatility of foreign direct investment returns.