ANALYSIS OF FACTORS DESCRIBING AND EXPLAINING THE STANDARD OF LIVING IN ARMENIA USING A VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL

The purpose of the study is to determine the nature and significance of the influence of the main internal and external economic factors (including revenues and expenditures of the state budget) on indicators characterizing the standard of living. In the current study, an attempt was made to assess the role of various macroeconomic factors, including internal and external economic factors influencing changes in living standards, using a vector autoregressive model. The study used quarterly data of individual indicators for 2008-2024. The growth patterns of indicators describing the standard of living were also touched upon, in particular, they were derived, to what extent the observed changes in the factor are explained by internal and external indicators included in the system. Within the framework of the factors considered, the share of consumer loans in GDP and a relatively lower unemployment and inflation level has the most tangible impact. Inflation and its expectations can also lead to changes in the current reduction in consumption or its dynamics, changing the behavior of households, including reactions to budget revenues and expenditures, GDP per capita, and indicators characterizing the standard of living, in general, are relatively not noticeable. As a result of the study, the order of importance of the role of the observed internal and external factors in changes in indicators characterizing the standard of living was revealed under a decrease in the overall effect over 4 years.