SPILLOVERS OF ACCESS TO THE CAPES PORTAL IN BRAZILIAN SCIENTIFIC PRODUCTION

This study aims to analyze the correlation between access to the Capes Journals Portal and Brazilian scientific production from 2003 to 2022. Quantitative in nature, the research utilized a documentary analysis of annual data on access to the Portal and Brazilian scientific publications. Pearson’s correlation coefficient and a linear regression model were applied to assess the association between these variables, along with a moving average to identify long-term trends. The analysis was conducted using the Pandas and SciPy libraries in Python, ensuring the precision of statistical calculations. The results indicated a strong positive correlation (Pearson coefficient of approximately 0.96) between increased access to the Capes Journals Portal and the growth of scientific production during the analyzed period. Linear regression revealed that 92% of the variation in the number of publications can be explained by the volume of access, highlighting its direct impact on academic productivity. These findings underscore the Portal's role as an essential public policy for scientific development, promoting the advancement of science in Brazil even amid budgetary constraints. It is concluded that expanded access to the Portal represents a strategic and structuring policy, boosting scientific production and mitigating the effects of financial limitations in the sector.