PREDICTING RICE GROWTH AND YIELD USING CERES-RICE MODEL: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF TRANSPLANTED AND DIRECT-SEEDED RICE CULTIVATION SYSTEMS

Abstract Global food instability, driven by increasing population and climate change, poses significant challenges to food production and distribution. A field trial was conducted at the Agronomic Research Farm, University of Agriculture Faisalabad in 2023, using the CERES-Rice Model to evaluate the performance of rice hybrids under different sowing methods. The study aimed to assess the feasibility of direct-seeded rice (DSR) as an alternative to conventional transplanted rice (TPR) in terms of water conservation, labor reduction, greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, and climate adaptation. The experiment was designed in a Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with split plots and three replications, involving two rice hybrids (Basmati-515 Fine and FMC-1) and two sowing methods (DSR and TPR). Growth and yield data, including total dry matter, crop growth rate, leaf area index, leaf area duration, and net assimilation rate, were recorded and analyzed using ANOVA and LSD test at a 5% significance level. Results showed that sowing method significantly influenced the number of tillers (m-2), biological yield, panicle length, and grain yield. FMC-1 hybrid produced the highest kernel yield (5615.47 kg ha-1) under the transplanted method, attributed to favorable nutrient availability and higher productive tillers and kernel weight. The study concludes that FMC-1 hybrid rice under transplanting provides the highest yield in the agro-ecological conditions of Faisalabad, with implications for optimizing rice cultivation practices.