Climate Variability and the Issue of Water Sustainability in Morocco: The Case of the Krifla Basin (Oued Bouregreg Basin - Morocco)

The issue of climate variability and its impact on water resources, and consequently on economic development, has become one of the most pressing environmental and natural challenges facing all countries and populations worldwide. It is, therefore, one of the greatest challenges confronting humanity in the 21st century. Like the rest of the world, Morocco has not been spared from the effects of these climatic changes, which have intensified over the past decade. These changes manifest in both abundance, sometimes leading to flooding, and scarcity, which results in the exacerbation and spread of drought and water shortages, with severe consequences for both people and the environment. In response to these challenges, Morocco has adopted a proactive approach to mitigate the effects of climate change, particularly through the dam construction policy initiated by the late King Hassan II in the 1960s. This policy targeted all major river basins in Morocco, including the Oued Bouregreg Basin, which encompasses the studied Krifla Basin. The primary objective of building these dams was to manage water resources. However, with increasing demographic growth, these water infrastructures have also played a crucial role in the economic development of the surrounding areas, particularly in agriculture, tourism, and industry. Nevertheless, climate variability and increased human intervention have contributed to the deterioration of water resources and, consequently, agricultural activities in the Krifla Basin (upstream of the Sidi Mohammed Ben Abdellah Dam). This basin, covering an area of 1,310 km², serves as an important water supply source for Oued Bouregreg. This scientific study aims to analyze and monitor the temporal and spatial evolution of rainfall as a scientific climatic indicator to determine the relationship between climate variability, water resource conditions, and agricultural activities in the basin. To achieve this, we will analyze annual, monthly, and daily rainfall data collected from reference stations in the basin. These include two hydrometeorological stations: Ain Loudah on the main course of Oued Krifla and Sidi Mohammed Cherif on its tributary, Oued Mechraa. The study period spans from 1973 to 2022. In addition, fieldwork will be conducted for direct observation and assessment. Methodologically, we will employ a range of statistical tools and scientific methods to conduct a detailed and precise statistical analysis of the basin’s climatic characteristics. This will help track, understand, and determine the impact of climate variability and human intervention on water resources.