The State of Material Circularity for Critical Metals

The demand for critical materials continues to increase as technology continues to develop. However, these material reserves and resources are limited. This poses a risk of future material scarcity. This thesis analysed the current state and the future potential of 11 critical materials, including Beryllium, Borates, Fluorine, Gold, Magnesium, Niobium, Phosphorous, Rhenium, Tantalum, Tin and Tungsten. The methodology used in this thesis follows the research conducted by Lundaev et al. (2023), utilizing the growth S-curve and logistic-bell curve models with historical production, reserves and resources data to project future production trends, estimate the peak production and the depletion of material reserves or resources. The results indicated that some materials are approaching their peak production within a few years and most of them in a few decades. After reaching the peak, material production will decline until its reserves or resources depleted near in the future. To reduce or delay the risk of material depletion, circularity strategies are necessary, including increasing material recycling and substituting with alternatives that are less critical.