The Impact of Deforestation and Restoration Trends on Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Eastern Mau Forest Reserve, Kenya

Context and Background This study aims to assess the environmental impact of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes in the Eastern Mau Forest Reserve, Kenya, using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Over four decades, satellite imagery and socio-economic data were utilized to analyze the extent of deforestation, agricultural expansion, and human settlement growth. Supervised classification and NDVI analysis were conducted to evaluate the drivers and ecological implications of these changes, which threaten the forest's biodiversity and ecosystem services. Goal and Objectives: The primary goal of this study is to evaluate the dynamics of LULC changes and their impacts on forest sustainability and community livelihoods. Specific objectives include: 1. Mapping the extent of deforestation and vegetation recovery. 2. Assessing vegetation health using spectral indices. 3.Providing evidence-based recommendations for sustainable forest management and policy-making. Methodology: Spectral indices, including NDVI, were used to quantify vegetation health over time, identifying zones of degradation and recovery. GIS tools were employed for post-classification change detection to map LULC transitions. Ground truthing validated classifications, and socio-economic data were incorporated to contextualize drivers of change. Analysis revealed the interplay between population growth, agricultural practices, and conservation efforts in shaping the forest's current state. Results: The analysis revealed significant changes in land use and cover within the Eastern Mau Forest Reserve. Vegetation cover declined drastically, reducing from 52% in 1984 to 36% in 2002, and recovering to 42% by 2024 through reforestation initiatives. Bare soil areas increased considerably, accounting for 26% of the classified area in 2024, highlighting ongoing deforestation and degradation challenges. Forest degradation was primarily driven by agricultural expansion, which grew from 15% in 1984 to 28% in 2024, and settlement areas that nearly doubled due to population pressure. The quantities of displaced soil increased significantly, contributing to erosion and siltation in downstream water systems. Analysis showed the degradation of aquatic habitats along riverbanks, with water bodies impacted by sedimentation and pollution caused by human activities.