Calculation of destruction probability for anti-aircraft gun burst firing based on the mechanism of projectile-target engagement

The traditional model for calculating the destruction probability of anti-aircraft gun burst firing uses the method of calculating the average number of hits required for destruction, which obscures the differences in elements such as firing elements, projectile-target range, and hit conditions. With the demand for precise destruction, this model is no longer suitable. In this paper, a precise destruction probability calculation model is studied based on the collision and destruction mechanism of projectile-target engagement. Starting from the definition of a hit, a hit model based on the projection method of the projectile is established, and then the destruction probability upon hit is calculated based on the collision and destruction mechanism. With the aid of external ballistics, the burst firing process is simulated. Finally, the Monte Carlo method is used to calculate the average value of the simulation statistics. The simulation results show that the calculation method in this paper can more accurately reflect the actual destruction situation of the anti-aircraft gun weapon system against the target.