Forecasting the Lifetime of Photovoltaic Modules through Coupling a Physics-Based Degradation Model with 3D Heat Transfer Simulations

This study introduces a novel methodology for forecasting the lifetime of photovoltaic (PV) modules with a focus on accurately accounting for module temperatures, a critical factor influencing PV degradation. Traditional degradation models, often empirical and based on constant rates over time, fail to relate observed degradation rates with environmental stressors, leading to inaccuracies, especially when applied to PV systems in new locations or configurations. To address this limitation, we integrate a physics-based degradation model with 3D heat transfer simulation in TAITherm™, which provides accurate module temperatures. We model Siemens M55 mono-crystalline silicon modules in free-standing and integrated PV applications, including building rooftops and vehicles, to compare their degradation rates in a hot and temperate climate. In both climates, integrated applications are predicted to exhibit higher degradation rates due to increased module temperatures resulting from less efficient heat dissipation. Compared to free-standing modules, rooftop and vehicle-integrated modules experience lifetime reduction of 2 and 4 years, respectively. Finally, we explore the use of phase change materials (PCMs) for lifetime extension. Our simulations predict that integration of 4 cm and 10 cm slabs of calcium chloride hexahydrate PCM into free-standing modules in Phoenix, can extend their lifetime by 2 and 10 years, respectively.