Colombia After the FARC: Has Peace Really Arrived?

The 2016 peace deal between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia was hailed as a breakthrough in the effort to end the long-running civil war in Colombia. However, many municipalities in Colombia that formerly reported a FARC presence (former FARC municipalities) have experienced a puzzling surge in violence since the peace deal came into effect. I investigate how municipal violence levels changed after the 2016 peace deal and what factors were associated with inter-municipal variations in outcomes. My country-wide quantitative analysis and case studies strongly indicate that armed group presence and criminal economies, namely coca cultivation and illegal mining, contributed to increases in violence after the 2016 peace deal. I propose that former FARC municipalities with abundant criminal economies were highly sought by non-FARC armed groups and more likely to have experienced the incomplete demobilization of its resident FARC members, leading to violent clashes between armed groups. My findings highlight the difficulty of executing bilateral peace agreements in a multilateral conflict in which the control of lucrative resources is at play.