Rapid response modelled estimates of the effect of the US global aid freeze on President’s Malaria Initiative impact in sub-Saharan Africa

The current freeze on US global aid has the potential to disrupt critical live-saving activities of the President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI). Disruptions or cessation of planned PMI activities in 2025, with no mitigation, could result in an estimated additional 84,200 (95% CI: 69,300, 98,100) malaria deaths in sub-Saharan Africa over the course of 2025. Empirical observations and modelled scenarios highlight the speed at which malaria can resurge following the cessation of core interventions.