Alternative Roof Market Analysis Based on a Hybrid Dynamic Systems Approach and Multi-criteria Decision-Making Method

Recent advances in construction methods and sustainable development have allowed urban developers to significantly reduce urban environmental problems caused by building expansion, such as increased energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and the urban heat island effect. Newer alternative roofs could be potential solutions for these urban environmental problems. However, economic and social issuesadopting have hindered the penetration of this market. This study used the systems dynamics approach to perform a comprehensive analysis of the influential factors affecting the alternative roof market, such as economic, social, legal, technical, and environmental capabilities. Then, the performance improvement scenarios were evaluated and ranked according to their relative priority based on the simulation results. The results of this case study in Iran indicate that the combined scenario of the growth of urban space according to the increase in the economic coefficient of green space can be focused on more than other scenarios. However, all the designed scenarios have made significant beneficial changes in the key variables of the system under investigation. The results show that the alternative roof market has significant growth potential solution.