Investigating the Hedging Capability of Cryptocurrencies in the Gold Coin and Stock Markets in Iran

Objective Using cryptocurrencies to hedge against the risk of various types of assets can be considered a useful feature in cryptocurrency investment. In recent years, investment in cryptocurrencies has become more common, and many people have allocated a portion of their portfolios to cryptocurrencies. Understanding the behavior and capabilities of cryptocurrencies can help investors better manage their investments. In this research, we have studied the capability of cryptocurrencies to hedge investment portfolios in Iran's economy. We wanted to determine whether cryptocurrencies can hedge investments in the stock market and gold coins. Accordingly, we have selected two popular cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin and Ethereum, to investigate their capability to hedge investments in the stock and gold markets in Iran. Methods To investigate the risk hedging of common Iranian investments using cryptocurrencies, daily data related to the Tehran Stock Exchange Index and the price of the Bahar Azadi gold coin were utilized. The daily returns of the gold coin and the stock index were calculated over a four-year period from March 2019 to April 2023. Additionally, using the exchange rate of the US dollar in the free market, the daily prices of the most used cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin and Ethereum) were collected, and their daily returns were extracted. To examine the volatility of the variables, the researchers employed the multivariate GARCH autocorrelation model. For evaluating the hedging capability of cryptocurrencies based on the minimum risk approach, they used the following three methods: Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC), Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC), and the BEKK Diagonal Correlation Matrix. Results The results showed that cryptocurrencies can be used to hedge the risk of investments in the gold coin and stock markets in Iran. It should be noted that, based on the results, the hedge ratio of Bitcoin is larger than that of Ethereum, and to hedge the risk of investments in gold coins and stocks, Bitcoin has consistently allocated a higher percentage of the portfolio compared to Ethereum. Furthermore, it was found that the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) method provided a larger average risk hedge ratio across all portfolios. On the other hand, the results of the BEKK Diagonal Correlation method exhibited more fluctuations compared to the other approaches. Additionally, the findings indicated that during the periods from April to December 2020 and from September to March 2023, alongside the significant increase in the price of the US dollar in the country, the required weight of cryptocurrencies for hedging in investment portfolios composed of Bitcoin and gold coins, Ethereum and gold coins, as well as Bitcoin and stocks, and Ethereum and stocks increased. Conclusion Bitcoin and Ethereum can hedge investments in the Tehran Stock Exchange and the Iranian Gold Coin market. It should be noted that during times of uncertainty and devaluation of the local currency against the US dollar, greater investment in cryptocurrencies is needed to hedge investments in the gold and stock markets.