ARC and PLC Payment Prospects for 2023 and 2024

Recent farmdoc daily articles have discussed the impact of declining prices on corn and soybean return projections in Illinois (see farmdoc daily, July 30, 2024) and the prospects for crop insurance payments to cover revenue losses (see farmdoc daily, August 6, 2024) in 2024. To summarize, corn and soybean price declines through July have led to even lower farmer return projections than in crop budgets released in June. However, current expectations for good to excellent crop yields, despite lower prices, suggest that significant crop revenue insurance payments are unlikely for the 2024 crop year. Today’s article shifts the focus to the commodity programs administered by USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) - Ag Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC). We discuss how current estimates and projections for marketing year average (MYA) prices for 2023 and 2024 impact prospects for payments from the ARC and PLC programs in both years. Overall, farmers in Illinois should not expect commodity title payments for 2023 production which, for corn and soybeans, would occur in October of 2024. There is greater potential for commodity program payments associated with 2024 production, but much could still change over the course of the marketing year.