The United States, Brazil, and China Soybean Triangle: A 20-Year Analysis

Brazil's 2023 soybean exports reached a record of 3,744 million bushels, up 29% from the previous year as Brazilian production hit a new record. Meanwhile, the United States' shipments declined 14% to 1,789 million bushels in the same period. The United States and Brazil are major competitors and together supply over 80% of soybean global exports, while China accounts for about 60% of total soybean imports. Soybeans are the largest agricultural commodity exported to China by both the United States and Brazil. Over the last five years, Brazil has become heavily reliant on Chinese import demand; 73% of Brazil's exported soybeans have headed to China, versus a 51% average for the United States. The United States’ reduced reliance on exports to China allows for greater diversification compared to Brazil. This article examines the last 20 years of Brazilian and American soybean exports and provides perspective on the future of global trade in soybeans.