Grain Yields and the Causes of the Russian Revolution

In the study of the causes of the Russian Revolution, the problem of the standard of living of the population plays an important role. This problem, in turn, is linked to the question of agricultural productivity. In modern historiography, both domestic and foreign, the thesis of the growing productivity of Russian agriculture in the post-reform period is considered proven - and in particular the increase in grain yields. This thesis is based on the well-known works of V.G. Mikhailovsky, V.M. Obukhov and A.S. Nifontov, in which time series of grain yields in European Russia were constructed on the basis of official statistics. Meanwhile, the opinion of the experts of the 1901 Commission is well known, who believed that the increase in yields recorded in official statistics was explained by the improvement in the system of collecting harvest data. Reforms to improve the survey system were carried out in 1870, 1883 and 1893. The author examines the dynamics of 4-year averages and shows that when 4-year periods containing the years indicated are excluded from consideration, the yield in the remaining time intervals does not increase. In other words, the increase in yield in the time series shown was explained by more detailed accounting. The period 1893-1914 is considered separately, when it is assumed that the yield data were quite accurate and no new reforms were made in the field of their collection. Previously it was assumed that the yield, calculated by the regression coefficient of the linear model, increased by 12% during this period. The author conducts a more detailed analysis and shows that the regression coefficient used previously is statistically insignificant. Thus, the claim of an increase in returns over this period cannot be statistically substantiated. Perhaps the return was a random variable independent of time. The paper also examines the dynamics of gross cereal yields per capita and shows that average per capita yields did not increase between 1893 and 1914. Thus, the prevailing opinion about the growth of agricultural productivity in Russia in the post-reform period needs to be revised