Apport du modèle d'utilité anticipée à l'analyse de l'attitude des exploitants agricoles face au risque

The expected utility theory is the most used theory to modelling risky production in agriculture. However, Allais and others suggested that people violate expected-maximisation in systematic ways. Such violations have led to develop anticipated utility theory that generalises the expected utility theory. This generalisation postulates that, in uncertains choices, individuals substitute elementary probabilities by weighting probabilities. This probabilities weighting is represented by a transformed function which takes a part in the risk aversion attitude. This paper investigates the use of new developments of the expected utility theory known as anticipated utility theory. An approach to estimate farmers' risk attitude is here presented. Questionnaires are designed to elicit both the utility function and the probability weighting function.