Systems Analysis and Negotiation of Strategic Partnerships in the Supply of Biofuels to Commercial Aviation; Flying into a Fragile Future: Actor-Network Theory, Climate Change, and the Policy Challenges of Aviation Decarbonization

Industrial supplies of energy and fuels need coordinated efforts by stakeholders to address complex challenges related to resources, finances, infrastructure, regulations, innovations, behaviors, etc. Advanced aviation biofuels, in particular, involve complex negotiations and tradeoffs among subsystem owners and operators, regulators, government agencies, and transportation providers. This paper utilizes a case study on biofuel distribution to Dulles International Airport to address three primary components of a systems engineering-based supply chain analysis: (i) stakeholder mapping, (ii) scenario evaluations, and (iii) resilience analysis. This paper builds upon the power-interest matrix to develop an Engagement, Financing, and Time Horizon Analysis (EFHA) matrix to support systems engineering and stakeholder negotiations for energy and fuel supply chains. EFHA identifies several key problem dimensions: coordination among diverse stakeholders, resource allocation and policy considerations, and time horizons for action. In evaluating various supply chain scenarios, the Freight and Fuel Transportation Optimization Tool (FTOT) from the U.S. Department of Transportation was employed to assess network infrastructure, sensitivity constraints regarding feedstock and pricing assumptions, and capacity impacts of different transportation options, all in the scope of biofuel distribution. In evaluating enterprise resilience, the paper employs a screening tool encompassing comprehensive criteria for system functionality, detailed supply chain system components, and emergent conditions to understand scenarios and disruptions that most matter to a biofuel supply chain for airports. The aviation industry plays a critical role in global connectivity and economic growth; simultaneously, the industry also significantly exacerbates climate change through greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and contrail-induced warming. This research examines the environmental impacts of aviation and the intersectionality of sociotechnical factors that influence national and international decarbonization efforts within the industry. The central research question for this paper asks: How can Actor-Network Theory (ANT) be applied to illuminate the aviation industry's environmental impacts, and how might this knowledge inform future policies developed by industry stakeholders to advance equitable decarbonization technologies? Using ANT as an analytical framework, this paper investigates the interactions between key actors -including airlines, regulatory agencies, environmental organizations, and technological innovators – and how these interfaces shape aviation’s trajectory toward sustainability. Documentary research methods were employed to analyze scholarly literature, policy documents, and industry reports on aviation emissions, sustainable fuels, and regulatory frameworks. Preliminary findings suggest that, while technological advancements in sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and alternative propulsion systems offer potential pathways to decarbonization, institutional, economic, and political barriers significantly hinder the large-scale implementation of these innovations. This research contributes to Science, Technology, and Society (STS) scholarship by demonstrating the importance of data-driven and systematic decision-making in technological adoption and policy formation. Its findings provide insights into strategies for aligning industry and governmental actions toward a more equitable and effective transition to low-carbon aviation. Understanding aviation’s environmental impact through ANT highlights how power dynamics and network relationships influence sustainability efforts.