Premature supermassive black hole mergers in cosmological simulations of structure formation

Abstract The co-evolution of massive black holes (BHs) and their host galaxies is well-established within the hierarchical galaxy formation paradigm. Large-scale cosmological simulations are an ideal tool to study the repeated BH mergers, accretion and feedback that conspire to regulate this process. While such simulations are of fundamental importance for understanding the complex and intertwined relationship between BHs and their hosts, they are plagued with numerical inaccuracies at the scale of individual BH orbits. To quantify this issue, taking advantage of the (100 h−1 cMpc)3 Fable simulation box, we track all individual BH mergers and the corresponding host galaxy mergers as a function of cosmic time. We demonstrate that BH mergers frequently occur prematurely, well before the corresponding merger of the host galaxies is complete, and that BHs are sometimes erroneously displaced from their hosts during close galaxy encounters. Correcting for these artefacts results in substantial macrophysical delays, spanning over several Gyrs, which are additional to any microphysical delays arising from unresolved BH binary hardening processes. We find that once the macrophysical delays are accounted for, high-mass BH merger events are suppressed, affecting the predictions for the BH population that may be observable with LISA and pulsar timing arrays. Furthermore, including these macrophysical delays leads to an increase in the number of observable dual active galactic nuclei, especially at lower redshifts, with respect to Fable. Our results highlight the pressing need for more accurate modelling of BH dynamics in cosmological simulations of galaxy formation as we prepare for the multi-messenger era.