Modeling Risk of Alpha-gal Syndrome (AGS) in North Carolina: Informed Risk Mitigation through Land Use Policy

Alpha-gal syndrome (AGS) is a newly uncovered mammalian meat allergy thought to be transmitted through the bite of the lone star or black-legged tick. While relatively little is known about the prevalence and spatial distribution of AGS across the United States, it is likely that the risks of AGS, along with other tick-borne diseases (TBD), are evolving due to changing climate and changing land use practices. The scientific objective of this study was to model AGS risk based on epidemiological and land use data, with the goal of developing evidence-based land use policies that may reduce human-tick interactions, thus minimizing AGS risk. The results demonstrate higher risk present in more densely populated areas and in lower intensity developed areas that may indicate presence of forest fragmentation. Polices that address forest fragmentation, such as afforestation subsidies or appropriate zoning, may help inform risk mitigation of TBD, like AGS, in North Carolina.