What Can Theories of Economic Migration Tell Us about Violence? An Examination of Migration Decisions during the Mexican Drug War

Previous research on violent social conflict and migration has documented a positive relationship between armed violence and migration outflows in numerous settings. However, few studies have examined the dynamics of this relationship. I use life-history data and linear probability models to further interrogate the relationship between contextual violence and internal migration in Mexico between 2008 and 2016, a period that featured violent conflict between drug trafficking organizations and the state. The analysis tests whether internal migration is more closely associated with absolute or relative changes in local levels of violence, and whether particular characteristics of individuals moderate this association. Results indicate that internal migration is more closely associated to absolute changes in the level of violence, and that this relationship is driven almost entirely by the migration of individuals who are not employed outside of their homes. I draw on theories of labor migration to provide explanations for these findings.