Fractured Consensus : Domestic Polarization and the Erosion of U.S. Global Leadership

This thesis examines how domestic political polarization in the United States may contribute to the erosion of U.S. global leadership. Using a longitudinal analysis of foreign policy actions from 1993 to 2023, it traces patterns of policy instability, declining international trust, and weakening global influence. Drawing from hegemonic stability theory, the study uses process tracing, institutional coding, and global opinion surveys to assess whether polarization aligns with observable shifts in U.S. credibility abroad. While not asserting causality, the analysis highlights how internal fragmentation correlates with foreign policy volatility and reputational uncertainty—raising questions about the long-term durability of American hegemony in a polarized era.