Estimating the Effects of Natural and Anthropogenic Activities on Vegetation Cover : Analysis of Zhejiang Province, China, from 2000 to 2022

Zhejiang Province, a pivotal economically developed region within China’s Yangtze River Delta, requires systematic investigation of spatiotemporal vegetation dynamics and their drivers to formulate targeted ecological protection policies and optimize vegetation restoration strategies. Utilizing the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, this study applied the Kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) to assess vegetation responses to climate variability and human activities in Zhejiang Province from 2000 to 2022. Analytical methods included simple linear regression, Theil Sen trend analysis (Sen), Mann Kendall test (MK), Hurst index, partial correlation analysis, and correlation analysis. The results show: (1) The kNDVI exhibited a significant upward trend (0.001/year), covering 61.5% of the province. The Hurst index analysis revealed that 69.1% of vegetation changes exhibited anti-sustainability characteristics, with future vegetation degradation areas (56.4%) projected to exceed improvement areas (28.1%). (2) Human activities (57.11%) contributed more to kNDVI changes than climate change (42.89%). (3) Against the backdrop of climate change, kNDVI demonstrated a positive partial correlation with temperature (coefficient: 0.44) but exhibited a negative correlation with precipitation (coefficient: −0.056), confirming temperature as the dominant climatic driver. Overall, vegetation dynamics in Zhejiang Province from 2000 to 2022 were jointly driven by climate change and human activities.