Influencing factors of sleep disorders in elderly hypertensive patients and the construction of nomogram prediction model

Objective To investigate the factors influencing sleep disorders in elderly hypertensive patients, construct a corresponding nomogram prediction model, and validate its efficacy. Methods A retrospective analysis was conduct.ed on the clinical data of 420 elderly hypertensive patients who visited the Third Hospital of Changsha from December2021 to December 2022. The patients were randomly divided into a training set (294 cases) and a test set (126 cases) using a computer.generated random number table. All patients were followed up for 12 months. In the training set, patients with sleep disorders were selected as sleep disorder group (n=144) , and those without sleep disorders were selected as non.sleep disorder group (n=150) . The factors influencing sleep disorders in elderly hypertensive patients were analyzed using a logistic regression model. A regression equation was established and a nomogram prediction modelwas constructed. The model..s efficacy was verified using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the calibration curve was used to evaluate the model..s calibration ability. Results The comparison of clinical characteristics between the training and test sets showed no statistically significant difference (P>0.05) . Logistic regression analysis showed that older age, female, restless leg syndrome, high HAMA score, and use of β-receptor blockers were risk factors for sleep disorders in elderly hypertensive patients (P＜0.05) , while family per capita income was a protective factor (P＜0.05) . A nomogram prediction model for sleep disorders in elderly hypertensive patients was established based on the data above: Y=0.733×age+0.847×women + 0.965×percapita family income + 0.885×restless legs syndrome + 0.719×HAMA score + 0.954×β-receptor blockers. The evaluation of ROC curve and Calibration curve showedthat the nomogram model had good prediction performance (AUC of test set was 0.924, with a sensitivity of 87.50% and a specificity of 90.32%) and calibration ability (concordance index of test set was 0.925). Conclusion The risk factors of sleep disorders in elderly hypertensive patients include older age, female, restless leg syndrome, high HAMA score, and use of β-receptor blockers, and high family per capita income is a protective factor. The nomogram prediction model based on the above factors has a good prediction effect on sleep disorder in elderly hypertensive patients.