A regional modelling perspective on the impacts on Central Asia of dust emitted from the Aralkum, the desiccated lakebed of the Aral Sea

\nOver the past 60 years the desiccation of the Aral Sea has created a new desert in Central Asia, the Aralkum (Aral Desert), and with it a new source of desert dust aerosol. COSMO-MUSCAT regional simulations of the Central Asian dust life-cycle provide estimates of dust emission from the Aralkum region during the year of March 2015 to March 2016, indicating a near-doubling in its estimated late 20th century emissions into the 21st century, with estimates based on differences in surface water coverage. A consequence of this increase in dust emissions is a corresponding deterioration in air quality as particulate matter (PM10) concentrations increase. During the simulation year much of the Aralkum’s dust emissions are driven by westerly winds and hence areas of southern Kazahkstan to the east of the Aralkum would be particularly badly affected by its dust. In Uzbekistan, the WHO’s guidelines on maximum recommended daily average PM10 values are simulated to be exceeded on 29 days during the year in the city of Nukus, 8 days in the city of Bukhara, and 2 days in the capital city of Tashkent.\n