Reconsidering the Future of Seawater Desalination in China: Proposal of Constructing Short-cut Water Cycle in Coastal Areas

Water scarcity is a pressing issue that threatens sustainable development worldwide, especially in regions like China, where natural freshwater resources are increasingly strained by rapid urbanization, climate change, and ecological demands. While seawater desalination offers a strategic freshwater augmentation pathway, its large-scale application remains constrained by challenges including public perception gaps (eg, how to understand water scarcity), techno-economic barriers, and developmental paradigm controversies. Through comprehensive analysis grounded in first-principles thinking, this research re-evaluates seawater desalination as a transformative solution to water scarcity, incorporating assessments compared to conventional water supply systems. This study proposes a novel “100-Kilometer Coastal Desalination for Short-cut water cycle (100K-CDS)” strategy for China, leveraging its extensive coastline to industrialize water production. Key findings reveal that modern reverse osmosis technology has achieved significant cost reductions through technological advancement and economies of scale. The integration of renewable energy sources could reduce desalination’s carbon footprint by 57.5%~98.3% compared to conventional systems. Implementing coastal desalination strategies will not only effectively alleviate regional water demands of coast areas, which account for 40% of the nation’s population and over 50% of its GDP. This research contributes a paradigm-shifting framework for treating desalinated freshwater as a manufacturable resource rather than a finite natural commodity, offering promotable insights for water-scarce regions worldwide and advancing global water sustainability through industrial-scale desalination. • First-principles thinking re-evaluates seawater desalination as a transformative solution to water scarcity. • 100-Kilometer Coastal Desalination for Short-cut water cycle (100K-CDS) strategy was proposed. • Overcoming public perception gaps and techno-economic barriers unlocks large-scale desalination potential. • Renewable energy sources could remarkably reduce desalination’s carbon footprint.