Using Optimization\nto Investigate the Adaptive Operation\nof Reservoirs under the Context of Climate Crisis

This study investigates the climate change impacts on\nthe performance\nof the Thac Mo reservoir in Vietnam throughout the release duration\nfrom December to June of the following year. The adaptative optimization\noperating rules during two periods, 2029–2064 and 2064–2099,\nwere analyzed. Precipitation and temperature of three shared socioeconomic\npathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1–P2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5)\nof the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) derived\nfrom the global climate model (GCM) Meteorological Research Institute\nEarth System Model version 2.0 (MRI-ESM2–0) were used for inflow\nprediction. Due to the decreased inflow, the current operating rule\nwould almost lead to a decrease in hydropower production of two periods\nof SSP1–P2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5 scenarios\nof −3.9, 0.7, −7.6, −6.7, −6.3, and 7.0%\nand an increase in water scarcity, with the respective amount of water\ndeficit by 20.4, 6.8, 33.2, 31.3, 30.2, and 28.3% compared to the\nbase period (1987–2022). The improved power production of 7.1,\n7.1, 7.3, 6.2, 6.9, and 6.8% and reduced water shortage of −40.2,\n−42.7, −37.2, −43.4, −40.8, and −39.0%\ncan be achieved by applying the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm\nII (NSGA-II) optimization technique under different periods and scenarios.\nThis approach has the potential to mitigate climate change effects\non future reservoir operations.