Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in the Water Conservation Area of the Yellow River Basin based on the PLUS-InVEST Model

Climate and land-use change are important drivers of variation in carbon storage within terrestrial ecosystems.Investigating the effects of climate and land-use change on carbon storage has practical implications for proposing adaptive management strategies for carbon sequestration in a changing environment.In this study， the InVEST model and the PLUS model were used to evaluate the spatial and temporal dynamics of carbon storage in the water conservation area of the Yellow River under the dual influence of climate and land-use change.The results showed that the land-use in the water conservation area of the Yellow River was dominated by grassland and forest from 1980 to 2020， accounting for 80 % of the total area of the basin， with an increasing trend in the area of forest land， grassland， watershed and construction land， and a decreasing trend in the area of other land-uses.The types of land-use transfer include unused land to grassland， grassland to forest land and cultivated land.From 1980 to 2020， the carbon storage in the water conservation area of the Yellow River showed an overall growth trend.The growth area of carbon storage was mainly located in the western and central regions， increasing by 573.5×106 t， which was closely related to climate warming and humidification and ecological restoration.The urban expansion areas in the central and northern regions are the main areas of carbon storage reduction.In the future， under different land-use scenarios， the area of forest and grassland in the ecological protection scenario will increase significantly.From 2030 to 2050， under SSP119 and SSP245 scenarios， carbon storage will increase by 294.83×106 t and 79.56×106 t， respectively， under natural development scenarios， and carbon storage will increase by 364.8×106 t and 151.95×106 t， respectively， under ecological protection scenarios.Low emission and ecological protection scenarios are favorable for carbon storage increase.In the future， the increase in carbon storage will mainly come from grassland， conversion of unused land into forest and cropland， and conversion of unused land into grassland.The decrease in carbon storage is mainly related to the conversion of forest land into grassland and cropland.It can be seen that protecting forest and grass is an important measure to improve the carbon storage of regional ecosystem.The results can provide a scientific basis for adjusting the land-use structure and carbon sequestration of the ecosystem in the water conservation area of the Yellow River.