Breaking the stalemate: Europeans' preferences to expand, cut, or sustain support to Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a turning point for European security. Public support is crucial for sustaining the significant aid European countries have provided to Ukraine. In this article, we focus on two key aspects of public opinion on the war in Ukraine: whether Europeans want to increase, decrease, or maintain current support, and what drives these attitudes. Using survey data from six European countries fielded in June 2024, we find little evidence of war fatigue among the European public. Most respondents express satisfaction with current aid levels, and a narrow majority in most countries even supports increasing aid, while around 10 percent firmly opposes any support. Interestingly, preferences are unrelated to whether a country has been a large or small donor. Furthermore, preferences are shaped by economic evaluations and national identities. Citizens who negatively assess the domestic economy are less supportive of aid, while personal financial concerns have no impact. In addition, citizens with strong feelings of national identity are also less supportive of aiding Ukraine. We discuss the implications of these findings in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the challenges they pose for sustaining public support crucial to European security.