Dead ends and new beginnings: emerging actors, competing interests, and development claims in the Eastern Nile Basin

This study examines the evolving hydropolitics of the Eastern Nile Basin, where entrenched deadlocks are giving way to new dynamics shaped by emerging actors, competing interests, and ambitious development agendas. Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), South Sudan’s rise as a riparian state, and the increasing involvement of external powers—such as China and Gulf States—are collectively challenging Egypt and Sudan’s long-standing hydro-hegemony anchored in colonial-era treaties. Adopting a qualitative approach that integrates primary and secondary data, the study is grounded in the theoretical frameworks of Hydro-Hegemony, Hydropolitics, and Institutional Theory to explore the shifting balance of power, conflict, and cooperation in the basin. The findings underscore GERD’s significance in redefining upstream sovereignty and identify South Sudan’s development ambitions as a growing factor in regional water politics. The study critiques the continued reliance on the outdated 1929 and 1959 Nile Waters Agreements and exposes the limitations of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) in managing divergent interests. Moreover, it highlights how external investments in agriculture and infrastructure exacerbate competition, often sidelining equitable governance. The study concludes that sustainable water governance requires revitalizing the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), adopting adaptive and inclusive management strategies.