Integrating Thermal Resilience Thresholds and Endocrine Disruption Models to Predict Climate-Driven Reproductive Collapse in Clarias gariepinus Under Extreme Weather Events.pdf

Climate change-induced thermal stress and endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC) mobilization pose synergistic threats to aquatic ecosystems, yet their combined impacts on hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis function remain poorly quantified. This study investigated thermal-EDC interactions using experimental thermal gradients (25–40°C), LC-MS/MS steroid analysis, and machine learning modeling to predict reproductive collapse risks. Results identified a critical 35°C threshold for aromatase suppression (p < 0.01), reducing estradiol synthesis by 60% and inducing gamete apoptosis (LT50 = 4.2h at 40°C). Monsoon simulations revealed 3.2× increased BPA bioavailability, correlating with serotonin depletion (r² = 0.78) and spawning failure. Machine learning projected 18–22% gonadosomatic index (GSI) decline by 2040 under CMIP6 scenarios, with tryptophan hydroxylase emerging as the primary resilience biomarker (importance score: 0.92). These findings establish a predictive framework for HPG axis collapse, recommending immediate integration of thermalEDC monitoring into aquaculture management to mitigate reproductive collapse under IPCC SSP5-8.5 projections.