DECOUPLING GEOPOLITICS AND MARKETS: RETHINKING DRIVERS OF FINANCIAL VOLATILITY, 1999-2024

This study investigates the correlation between major geopolitical events, such as wars and diplomatic turmoil, and extreme fluctuations in global stock markets from 1999 to 2024. Using an econometric approach, we analyze 250 instances of significant index depreciation to assess whether geopolitical crises serve as primary drivers of financial volatility. Contrary to the initial hypothesis, the results indicate that domestic private sector-related events exhibit the strongest correlation with sharp market declines, while international political crises show no statistically significant relationship with major stock market drops. These findings challenge conventional assumptions linking geopolitical instability. Nevertheless, geopolitics are still important drivers of financial crises in the 21^st centuries for countries like Brazil, Poland, Italy, South Korea, Ukraine, Sweden and Turkey. Some insights were also taken from stressful events related to domestic politics and multinational and transnational private business, with results largely varied among the sampled countries.