Comparing FIFA Rankings and Transfermarkt Values for predicting International Football Results

This research investigates the relationship between differences in international football teams’ player market values and FIFA rankings, and the outcomes of their matches. Using a dataset with matches from 2011 to 2023, we show the relationship between outcomes and differences in team rankings and total market value in multiple competitions and match contexts. Results show that while both metrics are similarly mediocre predictors when used broadly, both ranking and market value perform to significantly varying degrees in different areas of International Football. For example, Transfermarkt values can be more effective predictors of games than FIFA rankings within some North and South American footballing contexts; while FIFA rankings have consistently better predictive accuracy in European contexts.