Opposition electoral strategies against democratic backsliding: the United for Hungary coalition and its 2022 primaries

How do opposition actors react to democratic backsliding? Using interviews with party elites and nationally representative survey data, this article explores the motivations behind the formation of the six-party “United for Hungary” coalition and the selection of candidates through primaries open to the whole Hungarian electorate, in the run-up of the 2022 general elections. We find that democratic erosion is at the core of opposition parties’ decision to run under the United for Hungary banner and one of the most important drivers of individuals’ participation in the United for Hungary primaries. Our interviews with opposition party elites show that the decision to run in a coalition was guided by pragmatic reasons originating in the electoral constraints they face after years of democratic backsliding in Hungary. Furthermore, participation in the primaries and electoral support for the coalition is associated with pro-democratic attitudes, dissatisfaction with democracy and experiences of non-electoral participation. Based on our analysis, we argue that democratic erosion leads opposition parties in two directions. First, they are encouraged to run together in ideologically diverse coalitions. Second, they are more likely to incorporate social movement-like characteristics. Furthermore, we argue that these changes go in line with the preferences of their electorates.