A spatial-based model of multiple discrete continuous demand for assessing recreational use of nature sites: a case study of Italian National Parks

This study proposes the use of a spatial-based travel cost model of multiple discrete/continuous demand to analyze recreational visits to five selected Italian National Parks. The proposed model has a spatial structure which allows us to capture potential patterns of environmental and economic dependency that may influence the destination choice and the number of trips taken to each destination. The model is estimated from revealed preference data collected through a general population survey of Italian National Park visitors. Results suggest that users are more inclined to visit destinations with improved visitor services and that those with similar economic characteristics show a similar sensitivity to changes in travel costs. Policy simulations based on the predicted number of visits across destinations are used to explore potential changes in travel patterns between sites. Simulation results suggest improving the site accessibility is likely to boost visitation rates for all national parks under study.