Modest and balanced: the US defense budget buildup during the first Trump administration, 2017–2020

Modesty and balance are not the first words that come to mind about President Donald Trump, but they do accurately describe the defense budget buildup that occurred during his first administration from 2017 to 2020. Measured against historical outcomes, the budget buildup facilitated modestly sized and institutionally balanced increases in readiness, force structure, and weapons system procurement. Contrary to contemporaneous claims, the budget buildup did not oversee a colossal rebuilding of the US military, did not disproportionally benefit readiness over other outputs, and did not ignore the Army in favor of the Air Force and Navy. These findings should ground expectations about what may occur in Trump’s second administration and remind scholars that the defense policy status quo is highly stable and resistant to change