Does climate policy backlash fuel Eurosceptic vote? Exploring the link in the European Parliament elections

The European Green Deal, the European Union's (EU) plan for its green transition, aims to mitigate climate change through economic transformation. With extensive implications for energy, transport, agriculture, and industrial policies, it was met with both support and resistance. The latter was illustrated by the farmers' protests of early 2024. In the lead-up to the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections, EU leaders expressed concerns that the perceived cost of climate policies might provoke public contestation and fuel Eurosceptic sentiments. This anticipated link between climate policy backlash and Euroscepticism also stirred debates within the European Commission, resulting in a notable decline in the prominence of green policies ahead of the elections. Despite the salience of these discussions in policy circles and the media, empirical evidence on the connection between climate policy scepticism and Eurosceptic vote remains limited. To address this gap, we analyse the data from the European Election Studies (EES). We demonstrate how favouring economic growth over climate policy in 2024 significantly increases the likelihood of Eurosceptic voting, a change from 2019. The implications of this association for the future of the EU's green agenda are discussed in the conclusions.