Nationwide extrapolation of economic benefit of therapeutic innovation: a 10-year retrospective budget impact of direct oral anticoagulants introduction in France

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) face increased risks of strokes and systemic thromboembolism (SE), traditionally managed with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs), which are associated with major bleeding (MB) risks. The nationwide real-life data-based NAXOS study, comparing Direct Oral Anticoagulants (DOACs: apixaban, dabigatran, rivaroxaban) to VKAs in over 400,000 AF patients in France, showed that DOACs are more effective, safer, and associated with lower total costs. This study evaluates the 10-year budget impact of DOACs in France, focusing on reductions in strokes/SE, MB, and monitoring costs (INRt). A retrospective budget impact model from 2014 to 2023 compared scenarios with and without DOACs, using clinical and cost data from the NAXOS study. The target population of DOAC-eligible patients ranged from 725,000 in 2014 to 1.4 million in 2023. Market shares trends were derived from the public national drugs database, indicating that VKAs’ use decreased from 67% to 11%, while DOACs, especially apixaban, rose sharply (2% to 55%) over the same period. Costs included treatment acquisition, strokes/SE, MB, and international normalized ratio testing (INRt) for VKAs. Over a 10-year horizon, the introduction of DOACs is estimated to have prevented 73,009 strokes, 97,234 major bleeding, and 19,567 stroke-related deaths among patients with NVAF. DOAC introduction increased treatment costs by €5.15 billion over 10 years, and reduced costs for strokes/SE (-€4.24 billion), MB (-€3.22 billion), and INRt (-€1.14 billion), leading to €3.45 billion of savings for National Insurance over 10 years, with apixaban contributing 55% of savings. This analysis may not account for all contextual variables, such as indirect costs related to productivity losses. Over 10 years, the introduction of DOACs in France has generated substantial savings in AF-related costs, highlighting their clinical and economic benefits and the importance for authorities to valorise the external effects of therapeutic innovations.