The cost-effectiveness of treatment for high-risk, early-stage, triple-negative breast cancer in Egypt: an analysis of neoadjuvant pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy followed by adjuvant single-agent pembrolizumab

The cost-effectiveness of neoadjuvant pembrolizumab + chemotherapy followed by adjuvant pembrolizumab compared to neoadjuvant chemotherapy plus placebo followed by adjuvant placebo was assessed in high-risk, early-stage, triple-negative breast cancer patients from an Egyptian societal perspective over a lifetime horizon. A 4-state Markov cohort model was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab + chemotherapy/pembrolizumab vs chemotherapy alone for the treatment of high-risk, early-stage, triple-negative breast cancer. The model simulated the clinical course of high-risk, early-stage, triple-negative breast cancer across four health states: event-free survival, locoregional recurrence, distant metastasis, and death. Clinical inputs for the simulation were derived from modeling of efficacy and safety data collected in the KEYNOTE-522 trial. Direct medical costs and indirect costs were reported in 2022 Egyptian pounds (EGP) and converted to US dollars ($). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of model results. Compared with chemotherapy alone, pembrolizumab + chemotherapy/pembrolizumab led to expected gains of 2.92 life years and 2.25 quality-adjusted life years, respectively, while increasing overall treatment costs by EGP 491,695 ($102,436). Incremental costs per year gained were EGP 218,285 ($45,476) per quality-adjusted life year and EGP 168,223 ($35,046) per life year, both of which were lower than the 2022 Egyptian cost-effectiveness threshold of EGP 398,439 ($83,008). The findings of sensitivity analyses indicated that the model was robust across a range of inputs and assumptions. In Egypt, pembrolizumab + chemotherapy/pembrolizumab is a cost-effective treatment for high-risk, early-stage, triple-negative breast cancer when considering health-related quality-of-life and years of life gained.