Public health impact of adjuvanted RSVPreF3 vaccine in older adults: a modeling study in nine countries in Middle East and North Africa

The adjuvanted RSV prefusion F protein vaccine (adjuvanted RSVPreF3) can protect older adults against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection and RSV-related lower respiratory tract disease (LRTD). We modeled the burden of RSV and the potential public health impact of RSV vaccination in adults ≥60 years in nine countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. A Markov model was adapted to the settings of Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. RSV acute respiratory infection (ARI) cases, LRTD-related pneumonia, hospitalizations, and deaths were computed over a five-year time horizon assuming no vaccination, and assuming adjuvanted RSVPreF3 vaccination coverage rates of 30% and 70%. Sensitivity of key inputs was explored using one-way sensitivity analyses. Across the considered countries, 9.1 million RSV ARI cases, including 4.6 million LRTD, were projected in adults ≥60 years over 5 years. A 30% coverage with a single dose of adjuvanted RSVPreF3 would prevent 1,052,191 RSV ARI cases (including 677,794 LRTD), 56,642 hospitalizations 52,138 pneumonia cases, and 5,377 deaths. An important part of the substantial RSV burden in adults ≥60 years in the selected MENA countries could be prevented through vaccination with adjuvanted RSVPreF3. <b>What is the context?</b> Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) can cause severe infections among all ages. In adults above the age of 60 years, severe RSV infections can lead to death or complications necessitating hospitalization. New RSV vaccines can protect older adults against RSV infections. <b>What is new?</b> We modeled the burden of RSV in Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates over 5 years. We also estimated the potential impact that RSV vaccination would produce in these nine countries. <b>What is the impact?</b> We evaluated the total number of symptomatic RSV infections to be as high as 9.1 million over 5 years in these nine countries located in the Middle East and North Africa region. We also concluded that the RSV vaccination would prevent more than 1 million cases and the subsequent related hospitalizations, pneumonia episodes, and deaths in these countries.