Quantifying ecosystem disturbances in nature reserves using satellite observational data and revealing their constraints on carbon sequestration potential

Ecosystem disturbances significantly impact the structure and functionality of nature reserves, thereby constraining their carbon sequestration potential (CSP). This study quantified ecosystem disturbances (EDS) in the Qomolangma National Nature Reserve (QNNR) from 2003 to 2022 using long-term remote sensing data combined with the Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) algorithm and anomaly detection. Land use data were employed to assess CSP. Results indicate that only 9.36% of QNNR remained undisturbed, while 65.04% experienced fewer than 10 disturbances and 24.89% faced 10–18 disturbances. Grassland and broad-leaved forests exhibited higher disturbance frequency and intensity. The total CSP of QNNR decreased from 609.99 teragrams (Tg) in 2003 to 533.28 Tg in 2022, with grassland carbon storage showing the largest decline (113.14 Tg reduction), whereas forest carbon storage increased from 6.50% to 9.74%. Spatial analysis revealed a significant negative correlation between disturbance intensity and carbon storage in CSP hotspots (high-carbon zones), highlighting that intensified disturbances directly weaken sequestration capacity. This study elucidates the gradient response mechanisms of disturbances on CSP and emphasizes integrating EDS-CSP synergy into reserve management frameworks to optimize ecological restoration policies and balance conservation with community development. The findings provide scientific support for adaptive management of high-altitude fragile ecosystems.