<b>The Impact of Future AI on Economic Growth in the United States</b>

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly becoming one of the most transformative forces in the U.S. economy. This research paper explores how future developments in AI will drive economic growth, reshape industries, and alter the labor market. By acting as a general-purpose technology—much like electricity or the internet—AI has the potential to increase productivity, reduce costs, and spark innovation across virtually every sector.The paper begins by outlining key economic theories, particularly Romer’s endogenous growth model and the concept of AI as a general-purpose technology. It then dives into real-world data and projections showing how AI could add between 1.5% to 2.5% annually to U.S. GDP and increase labor productivity by up to 40% by 2035. These gains are already visible in sectors like manufacturing (e.g., Siemens’ predictive maintenance), healthcare (e.g., IBM Watson), and finance (e.g., JPMorgan’s COiN platform).However, with opportunity comes disruption. Up to 25% of U.S. jobs may be at risk due to automation, especially routine-based roles. At the same time, new types of jobs—especially those tied to AI ethics, engineering, and data—are emerging. The paper stresses the importance of reskilling programs, digital education, and strong public-private partnerships to ensure that this shift benefits all Americans.Challenges such as algorithmic bias, market monopolies, and global AI competition are also explored. The report recommends proactive policies, including ethical AI frameworks, antitrust regulation, and increased public investment in R&amp;D.In conclusion, while AI poses clear challenges, it offers an unprecedented opportunity for sustainable economic expansion. If managed wisely through inclusive and forward-thinking policies, AI could reinforce the U.S.'s position as a global economic and technological leader.

Publication Details

Journal
Figshare
Published
2025-01-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.29320676.v1
Primary Topic
Law, AI, and Intellectual Property
Type
article
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article

The Impact of Future AI on Economic Growth in the United States

Figshare
Law, AI, and Intellectual Property
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The Impact of Future AI on Economic Growth in the United States

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Abstract

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly becoming one of the most transformative forces in the U.S. economy. This research paper explores how future developments in AI will drive economic growth, reshape industries, and alter the labor market. By acting as a general-purpose technology—much like electricity or the internet—AI has the potential to increase productivity, reduce costs, and spark innovation across virtually every sector.The paper begins by outlining key economic theories, particularly Romer’s endogenous growth model and the concept of AI as a general-purpose technology. It then dives into real-world data and projections showing how AI could add between 1.5% to 2.5% annually to U.S. GDP and increase labor productivity by up to 40% by 2035. These gains are already visible in sectors like manufacturing (e.g., Siemens’ predictive maintenance), healthcare (e.g., IBM Watson), and finance (e.g., JPMorgan’s COiN platform).However, with opportunity comes disruption. Up to 25% of U.S. jobs may be at risk due to automation, especially routine-based roles. At the same time, new types of jobs—especially those tied to AI ethics, engineering, and data—are emerging. The paper stresses the importance of reskilling programs, digital education, and strong public-private partnerships to ensure that this shift benefits all Americans.Challenges such as algorithmic bias, market monopolies, and global AI competition are also explored. The report recommends proactive policies, including ethical AI frameworks, antitrust regulation, and increased public investment in R&amp;D.In conclusion, while AI poses clear challenges, it offers an unprecedented opportunity for sustainable economic expansion. If managed wisely through inclusive and forward-thinking policies, AI could reinforce the U.S.'s position as a global economic and technological leader.

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