Still second-order national elections? Evaluating the classic model after the 2024 European elections

This article estimates whether the classic second-order national election (SONE) model still holds after 10 rounds of European Parliament elections, and how far the model explains the result in the 2024 elections, in particular. The article also investigates pan-European political effects: whether some political families have done systematically better or worse in European Parliament elections, including in 2024. It finds that the SONE model still holds, on average, across all 10 rounds of elections, including those in central and eastern Europe, but also that green and anti-European/radical right parties generally perform better in European elections than their government/opposition status or their previous national election performance would predict. In addition, the SONE model does not explain the outcomes in 2024 as well as it did for earlier rounds of the elections.