PIPEDREAM: Pharmaceutical Innovation, Progression Errors, Decision Risks, Efficiency & Attrition in Medicine

The PIPEDREAM model estimates false positive and false negative rates for each phase of the drug development process using data on attrition and marketing rates for each phase of the development process. We illustrate the model using aggregated historical data for the pharmaceutical industry from 1997-2007. These data suggest that false positive rates are high, and false negative rates low, throughout the early phases of development. False positive rates are lowest and false negative rates peak during Phase 2 clinical development. Furthermore, there is evidence of progression-seeking behaviour in Phase 3, with more molecules progressing to submission than might be expected.