Increasing global wood demand will risk forest sustainability

The European Union aims to be climate neutral by 2050, driving ambitious mitigation efforts. Our study investigates how climate and bioeconomy policies impact biodiversity in Sweden. Using GLOBIOM Model, we project the wood demand under three policy scenarios: Current policy, Bioenergy and Bioeconomy. Focal biodiversity indicators are mean deadwood volume, area of old forest, area of old forest rich in broadleaves and mean age of standing trees. Forest dynamics are simulated using Heureka-Planwise. We identify management strategies balancing economic objectives with biodiversity, employing both intensive and extensive approaches. Mean deadwood volume increased substantially in set-asides in all policy scenarios, while in production landscape, nearly tripling under Current Policy scenario and doubled under Bioenergy and Bioeconomy scenarios. The area of old forest on production land declined drastically, reaching 0.1 million ha in Bioeconomy scenario by 2100. Optimization favored intensive management strategies, particularly Bioenergy extraction in Bioenergy and Bioeconomy scenarios. Under Current policy, both intensive and extensive management strategies were equally dominant. Management strategies like Continuous cover forestry and Unmanaged were the least implemented. Wood demand consistently increased across scenarios, stabilizing under the Current policy scenario after 2040. In the Bioeconomy scenario the demand continued to increase, surpassing supply potential by 2070.